New Jersey Election 2023: What Happened?

Democrats Gain Seats in Senate and Assembly as Republicans Suffer Historic Collapse

The New Jersey Election results are in. A blue wave has hit New Jersey once again. In what was supposed to be a big year for Republicans, the Democrats dominated all night. Maintaining control of the legislature for another two years.

Watching this year's election results reminded me a lot of the first game of the NFL season when my New York Giants were utterly demolished at home 40-0 when the rival Dallas Cowboys came to town. The Giants were poised for a big year following their best season in over a decade. Key high draft picks and acquiring Darren Waller from the Raiders seemed that the Giants had it figured out. Many NFL analysts predicted the Giants would at least be a playoff contender. Unfortunately for the Giants, their season has become an absolute nightmare due to key injuries and questionable coaching decisions. The same applies to the Republicans in New Jersey.

Going into 2023, Republicans looked poised to take back both chambers of the Legislature. The issues were in their favor, low turnout in a double off year, and a new legislative map that favored Republicans looked like they were in for a historic night. Unfortunately, the Republicans never lived up to the hype. The GOP underperformed in numerous safe Republican districts, suffered big losses in many key districts, and even worse, Democrat Assembly Candidate Avi Schnall won big in heavily Republican-favored District 30, which was a complete and utter embarrassment.

After the Giants were defeated by Dallas earlier this year, I asked myself, “How does this even happen?” One would think that because expectations were so high and having a successful offseason would translate into success; but it never did. I asked the same question after what happened to the Republicans in NJ last night.

Many key districts such as LD4, LD16, and LD38 went for the Dems. What all three of these districts had in common is they were all posied for a GOP flip in 2023. In all honesty, Republicans not even being able to flip ONE key district was a sign that this year was not a good year. Even in LD3 where Ed Durr won in a massive upset against former Senate President Steve Sweeney in 2021 lost his bid for re-election in a landslide, which was something I did not see coming.

Even LD38, which was one of the most competitive districts in the state, should have flipped. Instead, Assembly Republican Victory (ARV) and Senate Republican Majority (SRM) went against county party advice and chose to hire a recent college graduate from Maryland who had never run a New Jersey campaign before over hiring competent in-house campaign staffers, who I know personally, to run that campaign. The LD38 loss falls into the hands of ARV and SRM.

Another district that is similar to what happened in LD38 was LD11. The GOP controlled the two Assembly seats while the Dems had control of the Senate seat held by Vin Gopal. Gopal was considered vulnerable since Republicans picked up the Assembly seats during the red wave of 2021. Gopal has gone on the record calling the whale deaths along the Jersey Coast a “right-wing conspiracy theory” which was a hot-button issue this year. As well as calling out Republicans for questioning the controversial sex-ed curriculum. To make matters worse, Republicans have been targeting Gopal since Spring 2022. The fact it was that bad of a blowout was an epic fail.

There were two districts that many voters were not paying attention to but were rather competitive, these districts were LD14 and LD36. LD14 was quietly considered to be NJ’s major battleground district in deep blue Mercer County. The race was neck and neck this summer. However, Republicans just could not keep up. The Dems pulled out a big win. Defeating the Republicans by sizable margins. It was a huge missed opportunity for the GOP.

LD36 was also a quiet competitive race. The demise of the GOP in this race was when news broke out about Assembly candidate Joe Viso admitting he spread fecal matter on a daycare center door. There was no coming back from that.

Even our neighbors in New York did not have a great night either. The two big highlight for the GOP was picking up a seat on the New York City Council in a big upset and flipping the Suffolk County Executive seat for the first time in 2 decades. One notable defeat for the NY Republicans was Justin Brannan defeating incumbent NYC Councilman Ari Kagan, who became a Republican in 2022 on the same day he was sworn into office. Brannan defeated Kagan by 17 points. Which was another huge failure for the NY Republicans.

The main question all NJ Republicans should be asking is, “How did we do so badly this year?” Although the GOP did pick up some county and local seats, that is all the GOP will have to feel good about this year. At this point, everything needs to be torn down and start all over again. There needs to be structure, organization, and accountability.

Overall, this year was a failure for the New Jersey GOP, the expectations were high and they did not achieve the core goal.

***For those who would like to check out the results, click here.